Daily Market Outlook, November 21, 2025 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Global markets are bracing for their roughest week in seven months as investors retreat from riskier assets amid concerns over lofty valuations and uncertainty surrounding the payoff of massive AI investments. The MSCI All Country World Index has tumbled over 3% this week, heading for its steepest weekly loss since April 4, when Trump's tariff policies rattled the markets. Asian stocks dropped 1.5% on Friday, marking their worst week since April, following a dip in Wall Street indices on Thursday. Cryptocurrencies also took a hit, with Bitcoin trading around 86k, with prices spiking lower to test 81k as European traders enter the fray, adding to the cautious sentiment. The cryptocurrency benchmark has dropped 21.2% in November, bringing its total losses over the last three months to 23.2% with market participants suggesting the crypto has been acting like the canary in the coal mine in this latest round of global derisking in most major asset classes. In Asia, Japan grabbed attention as Prime Minister Takaichi's cabinet unveiled the largest additional spending package since the pandemic began. The Yen held steady against the Dollar after the stimulus plan was announced, which includes ¥17.7 trillion ($112 billion) in general account expenditures. Investor sentiment remains gloomy, weighed down by ongoing fears of overinflated valuations and concerns about excessive spending in the tech sector. Nvidia, a key player in the AI boom, saw its shares drop 3.2%, despite its earlier optimistic outlook. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates continues to linger, with policymakers warning against easing monetary policy too hastily.

Oil prices are also under pressure, with Brent crude expected to slide over 2% this week, trading below $63 per barrel. The decline comes as Ukrainian President Zelenskiy agreed to work on a peace proposal, coinciding with the U.S. imposing sanctions on two major Russian oil companies starting Friday.

UK October retail sales volumes dropped 1.1% y/y, exceeding expectations, as consumers reportedly delayed spending ahead of Black Friday. GfK November consumer confidence fell 2pts to -19, amid concerns over a challenging Budget. Retail sales volumes rose just 0.4% y/y in the three months to October. Public finances showed government borrowing (PSNBex) overshooting by £9.9bn and cash requirement (CGNCR) exceeding by £7.3bn, signalling potential upward revisions. We anticipate the full-year cash requirement to increase by £12bn, with gilt sales targets rising by £10bn to £309.1bn at the upcoming Budget.

The delayed September employment report showed the US economy adding 119k jobs, with gains more widespread across industries (56% vs. 50% in August). This paints a more positive picture than earlier data, such as ADP’s -29k estimate. Despite this, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4% (4.44% unrounded), signalling increased labour market slack due to higher participation. While doves may push for rate cuts, the FOMC’s December decision remains unclear, as October and November data will not be available before the meeting.

Overnight Headlines

  • Japan’s PM Takaichi Unveils Large-Scale Fiscal Steps

  • Yen Intervention May Come Before 160, Japan Panelist Warns

  • Deutsche Bank Warns Of Japan Capital Flight Echoing UK Crisis

  • UK Confidence Hits On Budget Jitters, GfK Index Drops To -19

  • UK To Invest £100M In Tech To Boost AI Sector

  • EU May Take Rare Earth Equity Stakes In Australia

  • US Soybean Shipments Idle Despite China’s Pledge

  • Fed’s Paulson Cautious On Dec Cut; Says Labour Weakness Persists

  • Trump Deepens Tariff Cuts On Brazilian Food Imports

  • Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan Would Require Land Concessions

  • CBO Slashes Tariff Savings Estimate By $1T

  • US Banks Abandon $20B Argentina Bailout Plan

  • Intuit Q1 Sales Jump On AI Demand From Midsize Firms

  • GE Healthcare To Acquire Intelerad For $2.3B

  • OpenAI Partners With Foxconn On Data Centre Hardware

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.1500 (1.5BLN), 1.1530-35 (1.1BLN), 1.1550 (473M)

  • 1.1585-90 (405M), 1.1595-1.1600 (1.6BLN)

  • USD/CHF: 0.8050 (408M). EUR/GBP: 0.8810 (410M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6450 (510M), 0.6475-80 (780M), 0.6550 (3BLN)

  • NZD/USD: 0.5480 (1BLN)

  • USD/CAD: 1.4100 (200M), 1.4120 (723M), 1.4150 (276M)

  • USD/JPY: 156.00 (505M). AUD/JPY: 102.00 (300M)

CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 9/10/25 

  • October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 6643 Target 6750

  • Below 6619 Target 6430

EURUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 1.1573 Target 1.1620

  • Below 1.1554 Target 1.1492

GBPUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 1.3153 Target 1.3220

  • Below 1.3102 Target 1.3019

USDJPY 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 156.45 Target 159.50

  • Below 154.45 Target 153.04

XAUUSD

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 4109 Target 4220

  • Below 4057 Target 3975

BTCUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 90.5k Target 98.8k

  • Below 89.8k Target 97.1k