Chart of the Day USDCAD

Chart of the Day USDCAD

USDCAD Potential Reversal Zone - Probable Price Path

USD: US President Trump, who has been diagnosed with the coronavirus, is expected to be discharged from the hospital on Monday, and the US Congress continues to promote a new round of fiscal measures, and risk currencies generally rose this morning. The Dollar Index fell 0.8% last week to 93.8. It rebounded 1.9% in September and fell 3.6% in the third quarter, the worst since the second quarter of 2017. Trump briefly left the hospital on Sunday evening. Earlier, White House doctor Sean Conley said that Trump’s health is improving and he may be discharged from the hospital and return to the White House as soon as Monday.Bloomberg quoted sources as reporting that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin discussed a new round of economic stimulus plans with Trump over the weekend, and Trump called for an agreement to be reached as soon as possible. House Speaker Pelosi once again discussed the plan with Mnuchin last Friday and put forward five arguments that clearly diverged from the White House. He believed that Trump's infection with the coronavirus may demonstrate the severity of the epidemic and change the situation of the talks. Senate Majority Leader McConnell said that negotiations on stimulus policies have recently accelerated The number of non-agricultural job creations in the United States in September was 661,000, which was more than half the increase in August, which was below market expectations. The unemployment rate fell from 8.4% to 7.9%, which was better than market expectations.

CAD: Canada releases job growth figures for September on Friday. We’ve already seen a material cooling in the pace of new job growth from 290k in May to 953k in June, 419k in July and then 246k in August which has generally mirrored the pace of reopening plans across the country. Like the US, the ranks of the temporarily unemployed have been thinned which suggests a waning callback effect. Those on temporary layoff have fallen from a peak of 1.2 million in April to 231k in August. As the callback effect diminishes, the question becomes how many are getting jobs and how many are going on permanent layoff. Like the US, Canada is transitioning toward a period when continued job growth will have to be more reliant upon organic growth and much less so on returning furloughed workers.

From a technical and trading perspective, the USDCAD is currently testing ascending trendline support, symmetry swing support and the 38.2% retracement and prior resistance now as support 1.3270/50 off the reaction from the 1.30 lows, on the H4 timeframe. If bulls intend to make a stand this would be the ideal spot as such bullish exposure should be rewarded on a close through the daily pivot at 1.33, this would then set an equality upside objective to test the 1.27% extensions and weekly R3 towards 1.3550. A sustained trade through 1.3250 would negate the bullish thesis opening a move back to test bids towards 1.3150.

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