Gold & Silver Turn Lower As USD Rally Continues
The metals market is under fresh pressure this week as the ongoing strength in USD continues to weigh on near-term sentiment. Resurgent demand for the Dollar last week took a heavy toll on both gold and silver prices alike. Markets were somewhat wrong-sided by the tone of the July FOMC minutes which saw the Fed sounding much more determined to continue with strident tightening than had been expected. The hawkish tone of the meeting diluted the dovish conversations being held by traders on the back of softer CPI in July. With the Fed seemingly keen to push ahead with its projected rate path, USD looks vulnerable to further upside in the near-term which should keep metals prices pressured.
Looking ahead this week, there is plenty of key US data for markets to focus on. GDP and PCE will be the main releases to watch while later in the week Fed chairman Powell speaks the Jackson Hole symposium. His comments this year will be closely watched given their timing ahead of the upcoming September FOMC. With traders expectations caught between either a .5% and .75% hike, markets will be looking for Powell to add some clarity on this issue. Additionally, in light of how wrong Powell’s own projections turned out to be last year (e.g transitory inflation), markets will be keen to see how Powell addresses this and adapts his outlook this time around.
Technical Views
Gold
Following the rally off the 1679.77 lows, gold prices have since stalled and reversed into a test of the bear channel top and 1791.63 resistance level. The market is now heading quickly back down to the 1722.37 support, ahead of a test of the YTD lows beneath. With MACD and RIS bearish here, the focus is on a continuation lower near-term with only a reversal above 1791.63 able to shift this view.
Silver
Following the breakout above the bearish channel from YTD highs, silver prices were unable to move above the 20.6398 resistance level. With price having since reversed sharply lower from the level, and with both MACD and RSI bearish, the focus is on a continuation lower with the YTD lows around 18.4421 the next hurdle or bears. Below there, 17.4001 is the next objective.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.