TRADING NFP – OCTOBER 2025 JPM US MARKET INTELLIGENCE
US MKT INTEL’S NFP SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Feroli’s sees 50k jobs being added, slightly below the Street’s estimate of 57k; in August, 22k jobs were added. For the unemployment rate (U.3) he sees 4.3%, in line with the Street’s estimate. For Average Hourly Earnings, he sees +0.3% MoM and +3.7% YoY.
The following scenario analysis is a trading desk view from JPM US
Market Intelligence.
• [5%] Above 100k. SPX is flat to losing 1.5%
• [25%] Between 70k – 100k. SPX +0.5% to -0.5%
• [40%] Between 30k – 70k. SPX gains 0.5% – 1%
• [25%] Between 0k – 30k. SPX gains 0.25% - 0.5%
• [5%] Below 0k. SPX is flat to losing 1%.
• WHAT ARE OPTIONS PRICING? For options expiring on October 3, the market is
pricing ~2% move, as of market close on Nov 17, though this may also include heightened vol around NVDA’s earnings.
• US MKT INTEL ON NFP – Currently, we are scheduled to receive Sep NFP on
Thursday and Nov NFP on Dec 5; it is unclear that Oct data will be released, wholly
or partially. An inline print is Goldilocks, as it enough to propel the market forward
since it will be strong enough that fears of slowing economic growth should be
assuaged but not strong enough of a print to reignited inflation fears. Too strong of a
print pushes the Fed to the sidelines; if the Fed is paused because growth is too
strong, this is positive. SPX earnings are more correlated to nominal GDP growth
than to real GDP growth. Alternatively, a too cool print will spark recession /
stagflation fears. Given recent hawkish Fedspeak, 50bp may be too high a bar for
the Fed to jump over, highlighting one risk to a cooler print. Separately, the Fed and
the market are adjusting to finding the new equilibrium level of jobs given flat /
declining population growth
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!