Daily Market Outlook, October 15, 2024
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
"US Markets Surge ToYet More All-Time Highs, With Nvidia Eyeing The Most Valuable Company In The World Status”
A strong performance in semiconductor stocks, particularly a 2.4% increase in Nvidia, the artificial intelligence poster child, as well as a promising start to the third-quarter earnings season, helped the S&P 500 reach a new all-time high close and the Dow Jones index surpass 43,000 points for the first time. Nvidia's shares closed at an all-time high on Monday, pushing its market capitalisation to $3.39 trillion, just below Apple's $3.52 trillion and above Microsoft's $3.12 trillion.
Asian equities broadly advanced, with Japan's Nikkei leading regional gains after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reportedly stated his government aims to draft a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year exceeding the previous year's 13.1 trillion yen ($87.6 billion) to fund an economic support package. The yen declined from a two and a half-month high amid bets the Bank of Japan will forgo raising interest rates again this year. Chinese and Hong Kong markets declined after weekend announcements from authorities about economic support failed to inspire investor confidence. The dollar surged to a two-month peak, and gold edged lower, aided by expectations of a smaller U.S. rate cut next month. European equities are expected to start the trading session on a positive note on Tuesday, driven by investor confidence in corporate financial results. The attention now turns to the financial results of Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth, and Walgreens, following positive earnings reports from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.
The key focus for the European session will be the European Central Bank's survey on bank lending to the eurozone economy, which is expected to influence expectations ahead of Thursday's policy review. The ECB is widely anticipated to implement another 0.25% interest rate cut on Thursday, a move that policymakers were hesitant to signal and that traders had assigned less than a 25% probability to when the bank last met a month ago.
Overnight Newswire Updates of Note
Israel Will Strike Iranian Military, Not Nuclear, Oil Targets
Gold Steady As Traders Weigh Rate Path, Easing Mid-East
IMF: Global Public Debt To Hit $100T By End FY24
China May Raise $846B To Boost Growth, Caixin Reports
China Banks Mull Cutting Deposit Rates This Week
NZ FM Willis: Economy Will Respond To Rate Cuts
Fed’s Kashkari: Private Credit May Lessen Systemic Risk
Yen Weakens Toward 150, Intervention Back On Radars
German ZEW To Improve Despite Economic Struggles
Labour’s UK Summit Aims To Attract Foreign Investors
BTC Bouyed On Clearer US Crypto Rules After Election
(Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
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FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.0850 (824M), 1.0875 (583M), 1.0950 (500M), 1.0965 (431M)
1.1000 (3.3BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.8650 (452M). EUR/CHF: 0.9450 (200M), 0.9475 (875M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8400 (590M). GBP/USD: 1.3000 (492M). EUR/SEK: 11.3500 (336M)
AUD/USD: 0.6675 (2.7BLN), 0.6700 (481M), 0.6730 (787M), 0.6775 (2BLN)
0.6800 (1.9BLN)
NZD/USD: 0.6100 (721M). USD/CAD: 1.3850 (202M), 1.3875 (301M)
USD/JPY: 148.95-149.00 (723M), 149.40 (276M), 149.70-80 (514M)
149.80-90 (1.1BLN). EUR/JPY: 159.50 (325M). AUD/JPY: 101.00 (381M)
CFTC Data As Of 11/10/24
Japanese Yen net long position is 36,528 contracts
British Pound net long position is 93,135 contracts
Euro net long position is 39,098 contracts
Bitcoin net short position is -1,282 contracts
Swiss Franc posts net short position of -22,459 contracts
Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 26,533 contracts to 328,810
Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 6,124 contracts to 1,041,583
Speculators trim CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 183,760 contracts to 960,129
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5750
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 5720 opens 5660
Primary support 5575
Primary objective 5820 - TARGET HIT NEW PATTERN EMERGING
EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.11
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 1.1030 opens 1.1120
Primary support 1.0850
Primary objective 1.0850
GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.3230
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Below 1.31 opens 1.29
Primary support is 1.29
Primary objective 1.29
USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 144
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 141.50 opens 138
Primary resistance 152
Primary objective is 152
XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2645
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 2600 opens 2550
Primary support 2550
Primary objective is 2720
BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 57000
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 57000 opens 52000
Primary support is 500000
Primary objective is 700000
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!