Dow Jumps on PCE Weakness
The Dow Jones is starting the week on a slightly softer footing following the sharp rally we saw on Friday. The index recorded its best day of the year so far with a more than 1.5% gain in response to weaker-than-forecast PCE data. Traders are now once again looking at a higher likelihood of a September hike on the back of Friday’s data with the CEM group showing a roughly 55% pricing for a cut. If expectations for a September cut start to become more entrenched, this should offer stock prices further support near-term, helped by a weaker USD.
US Data on Watch
Looking ahead today, focus will be on the latest set of manufacturing data out of the US with the final manufacturing PMI for May due alongside the ISM manufacturing reading for last month also. Any fresh strength in today’s readings should feed into higher prices in the Dow. On Friday, we then have the all important US jobs data due. On the back of weaker data last time around, traders will be looking to see whether the jobs market continued to contract last month. If seen, this should further bolster chances of a September rate cut, lending support to stock prices.
Technical Views
Dow Jones
The reversal lower from the 39,910.68 level has seen the market breaking down below the bear channel support level and 38,581.70 support. Price is now attempting to get back above this level following Friday’s rally. While above here, focus is on a further push higher. To the downside, 37,252.72 remains the key support to watch near-term.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.