Attempt №2

On Tuesday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will try a second time to convince lawmakers to approve early parliamentary elections to break Brexit's vicious circle. His first attempt on Monday failed, as the “smart path” he chose required the support of 2/3 of the parliament and, obviously, was practically impossible. Today, Johnson will go through a legislative path (i.e., introducing the bill) that, to be a success, should be approved by a simple majority (>50%). The government has not yet released the legislation, but from what Johnson said on Monday (“it will be a short bill on the early elections on December 12”), we can already sift out possible date for the elections – early December.

But why

Nevertheless, the opposition parties have already hinted they will dispute the date to get fairer participation in the elections. One of the reasons was the fact that part of university students may skip the elections on December 12, because by this time they will go on holidays. Liberals want to make sure that crucial part of their electorate won’t miss the event, so they are likely to attempt to shift the date earlier.

The Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party have indicated that they will abandon their desire to vote for lowering the age of voting to 16 years in the process of discussing the bill. This is good news for Johnson since the less participation of the electorate of the opponent, the better for his Brexit agreement.

What will happen in parliament?

If there are no urgent issues or government statements, then lawmakers first discuss the schedule for consideration of the bill (“business of the house motion”). And only then they will proceed to its consideration. The government proposed that the bill go through all stages in the Lower House and take no more than six hours from the start of the discussion. The first key vote, indicating the level of support for the bill, will be the second reading, which should start in four hours after the debate

Will the opposition be against?

Labor party leader Jeremy Corbyn said on Monday that he would “consider carefully” the bill before voting on it.

“When no deal (Brexit) is off the table, when the date for an election can be fixed in law, and when we can ensure that students are not being disfranchised, we will back an election so that this country can get the government it needs,” Corbyn said on Monday.

The Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party have stated that their support will depend on the following three points:

  1. The government agrees not to ratify the agreement with the EU until the election results.
  2. “Hard” Brexit is ruled out from the agenda.
  3. The election date must be indicated in the bill.

All three conditions, as it seems, are already fulfilled by the government.

Bottom line: PM Johnson “was sent to act through legislative route” because other parties want to modify some details, but general direction (i.e. election) is basically backed by all key parties. It is highly likely that the early elections will be approved after clarifying the date. Therefore, this outcome is already largely priced in the price of the Pound.

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