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GDP Soars Above Forecasts
The US Dollar is trading higher today on the back of the latest set of US economic data yesterday. US GDP for the last quarter was seen surging higher to 2%. This was a stark jump from the prior 1.3% reading and the expected 1.4% reading the market was looking for. The increase has added to expectations that the Fed will press ahead with fresh tightening when it meets next month.
Jobless Claims Drop
Alongside the rise in GDP, initial jobless claims were seen well below forecasts, adding to positive economic sentiment. Speaking this week, Powell noted that further rate hikes were to be expected and the market is currently pricing in around two more .25% hikes this year. Looking ahead to the July meeting, rate hike probabilities have now soared to around the 90% from around just 50% a few weeks ago.
PCE Up Next
Today, focus will be on the next set of US data with core PCE due as well as personal income data. Given the current rally we’re seeing in USD, it would likely take a sharp downside miss to derail the greenback given that consensus is now building around expecting a further hike in July.
Technical Views
EURUSD
The failure at the retest of the underside of the broken bull channel has seen the market turning back down towards the 1.0785 level. This is a key support area for the pair and a break here will be firmly bearish, turning focus to the 1.0515 level next, in line with weakening momentum studies readings.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.