USD Falters Amid Disappointing Data and the BoE's Steady Stance

The greenback's earlier bullish momentum from the Asian session fizzled out as softer-than-expected jobless claims data and disappointing US housing statistics took their toll. The USD's performance left much to be desired, particularly with an unexpected rise in continuing claims, which had been projected to fall.

On the economic data front in the US, the focus is now on upcoming statements from Federal Reserve officials. However, markets seem weary of the persistent hawkish rhetoric. With little new to add, it appears the Fed's hawkish narrative has reached saturation.
May's housing sector data painted a bleak picture:
- Building Permits: Missed estimates, falling from 1.44 million to 1.386 million.
- Housing Starts: Also disappointed, dropping from 1.352 million to 1.277 million, against optimistic forecasts.
The labor market didn't fare much better:
- Initial Jobless Claims: Slightly improved from a revised 243,000 to 238,000.
Adding to the gloom, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for June came in at 1.3, missing the consensus of 5 and down from 4.5 in the previous month.
Despite the dour data, equities showed resilience, recovering from a negative Asian session. European markets held their gains, and US futures were up nearly 0.50% ahead of the opening bell. Meanwhile, interest rate futures indicated a nearly 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with roughly a 34% chance of a rate pause.
Across the pond, the British Pound continued its decline following the Bank of England's policy decision. The BoE kept its interest rate steady at 5.25%, in line with market expectations. The decision saw a 7-2 vote, mirroring the previous meeting, with two members favoring a cut:

The accompanying statement described the decision as "finely balanced," hinting at a potential rate cut in August if inflation risks appear to be receding. Despite the UK's CPI inflation aligning with the BoE's 2.0% target in May, persistent inflation in other areas keeps policymakers cautious about cutting rates too soon.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey underscored the uncertainty, noting that a rate cut couldn't be ruled out or guaranteed at this stage. This cautious stance aligns with market consensus, which doesn't anticipate a rate cut until August.
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