Trump Impeachment Won’t Likely Happen and Here is Why
"Democrats Week" remains the hottest source of trading clues on Wednesday. The call for Trump impeachment sent stock indices to a two-week low, and the increased risk aversion revived the trend up in risk-free assets. The dollar will briefly regain the status of a defensive asset, strengthening against other major currencies.
The anxiety of the markets is not clear though, and here are two strong reasons for that. Firstly, we should take into account that the House of Representatives is controlled by Democrats, but majority in Senate is hold by Republicans. The final word remains with the latter. As you know, the Democrats sunk their teeth into the Trump conversation with Ukraine’s president Zelensky, demanding to release the transcript of the talks. Republican rivals hope to find signs of severe misconduct, excessive pressure from Trump on Zelensky in an attempt to initiate an investigation, which will allow to promote impeachment and hinder the implementation of other Trump initiatives, in particular, economic ones. However, to their great disappointment, Trump authorised the release of complete, unedited transcript of the negotiations, reports Politico.
In addition, Trump ordered to release the complaint of the whistleblower (regarding the fraud of Biden’s son in Ukraine) and the report of the Inspector General, which are at the center of the impeachment situation. Trump is unlikely to have done this if he feared the consequences.
The company providing legal protection to the informant said that he is ready to fully cooperate with the government.
According to the political betting site, the chances of impeachment have plummeted:
It will be really funny if it turns out to be a well-thought-out “political trap” into which the democrats will fall, in particular the Speaker of the House of Pelosi. For a long time, she did not dare to make a formal request for impeachment, even at the height of the story with the “Kremlin hand” in the elections.
However, the market is cautious, hoping that the administration could have missed something:
To recap: it is too early to give in to anxiety, it is highly likely that the Democrats will not dig up anything again.
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