Trade of the Week
USD: The greenback slipped across the board except against the yen, led by the strength in the sterling. The dollar index closed 0.41% lower at 98.30. USD is likely rebounding today as the sterling seems likely to take another hit from the latest less-than-positive Brexit headlines. Sino-US trade: How long did we take to get through Phase 1? The markets drew positives from the postponement of the tariffs slated for 15 October, and the scheduled next round of talks in China (early Nov). Note that there is still no official signing off of any agreement. Structural differences and tariffs slated for 15 December still persist. If only built on Sino-US developments, it remains to be seen how sustainable this improvement in risk sentiments will be.
CAD: The data highlight for Canada over the balance of next week will be the Sep CPI data (Weds – forecast down 0.3% MoM but a tenth higher from Aug at 2.0% YoY). Existing Home Sales (Tue), International Securities Transactions data (Wed), Manufacturing Sales (Thur) and house price data (Fri) complete the domestic calendar next week. Absent bombshells, we doubt the election campaign will have any significant influence on the CAD.
From a technical and trading perspective USDCAD formed a bearish weekly key reversal pattern last week. USDCAD has retested and seen an aggressive rejection of the prior cycle high at 1.3348, now also trend resistance from mid -June and this has seen a bearish “reversal week” complete. Near -term the immediate spotlight moves to tt 1.3160, below which should keep the immediate risk to the downside with support seen at 1.3160. Beneath here can start to warn of a more important top and a move down to test the equidistant swing objective at 1.2860/40 which also contains the 50% retracement of 2018/19 swing.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!