Markets Under Pressure As Traders Await US CPI
Another dreary start to the week for benchmark global equities indices. The leading indices tracked here were all seen in the red yesterday as Fed tightening expectations continues to weigh on sentiment. While we did see a rebound off the lows yesterday, most notably in the S&P, the overall tone remains bearish with traders still widely anticipating that the Fed will lift rates as early as March, once tapering is complete.
Interestingly, we aren’t seeing a great deal of USD upside here. One argument is that Friday’s mixed jobs report failed to provide a catalyst for a further rally. Another argument is that the market’s USD long position is already well-build up, creating a higher benchmark for further increases. Either way, there is plenty of potential for further USD and equity market volatility today with the US CPI reading for December due.
A strong reading today will no doubt bolster USD bullishness, further dampening the near term outlook for equities. On the other hand, if today’s data undershoots forecasts, on the back of Friday’s jobs report, this might suggest the market has become too hawkish in its Fed forecasts, likely causing some USD unwind near term and allowing equities to rebound.
Technical Views
DAX
Yesterday’s sell off in the DAX saw the market trading down to test the support region at 15743.01, along with the rising trend line. With both MACD and RSI bullish, while price holds above this zone, the focus is on a further push higher with bulls looking for a break of the current 16292.21 highs. To the downside, a break lower here will put the focus on 15473.83 next.
S&P 500
The move lower yesterday saw the S&P briefly piercing below the rising channel lows before rebounding to close back above it on the day. With a long tail on yesterday’s candle suggesting plenty of demand into those lows, the current move is still deemed corrective for now. Bulls will need to see price quickly back above the 4744 level, however, to avoid a deeper test of the 4475.25 level next.
FTSE
For now, the FTSE is holding in a block of consolidation between the 7444.3 level support and resistance at the 7558.7 level, with channel top there also. In light of the recent breakout above the 7362.6 level, and with both MACD and RSI bullish, the focus is on a further break higher and a continuation towards the 7691.6 level next.
NIKKEI
The latest test of the contracting triangle top saw the NIKKEI turned lower once again. Price is now sitting just below the 28356.6 level, in the middle of the structure. While below here, and with MACD and RSI bearish, the market is vulnerable to a push down towards the 27422.9 level next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.