Tariffs in Focus
S&P futures are sitting just below all-time highs today as the market continues to grapple with uncertainty around US tariff actions. Yesterday, prices rebounded off lows as sentiment started to improve on the US tariff outlook. Traders are now taking the view that the August 1st deadline for new tariffs coming into action leaves plenty of time for negotiation. Indeed, some trading partner such as the EU are widely expected to secure better rates than previously projected. Focus now is on US negotiations with countries such as Japan where negotiations have not been as smooth and full 25% tariffs are still a threat.
Incoming News
Looking ahead, incoming headlines around trade will be key for markets. Any news of progress in negotiations or any fresh trade agreements being signed, will help bolster risk sentiment, leading equities higher near-term. Meanwhile, any negative trade news, particularly any increased threats from Trump. Should weigh on risk appetite, creating headwinds for equities prices.
Goldman Ups S&P Forecasts
Goldman Sachs this week revised higher its S&P returns outlook over the 3,6- and 12-month horizons. The bank now forecasts a, 3%, 6% and 11% gains respectively in line with expectations for earlier and deeper Fed easing. Indeed, the bank says that recent data has shown less evidence of tariff pass through than expected, making tariffs less of a roadblock to further easing than previously thought.
Technical Views
S&P Futures
The rally in the S&P has stalled for now into a retest of the underside of the broken bull trend line. Momentum studies are cooling here too, suggesting room for a deeper correction. However, while price holds above the 6,154.75-level focus is on a continuation higher. Below there, 5,932.75 is the next support to note.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.