SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 4/9/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~10 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6420/10
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6554 SUP 6392
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6440/50
DAILY RANGE RES 6521 SUP 6400
2 SIGMA RES 6581 SUP 6341
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 17.5
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - BALANCE
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET 6491>DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT 6491 TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
SHORT ON ACCEPTANCE BELOW 6425 TARGET DAILY RANGE SUP
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE
FICC and Equities | September 3, 2025 |
Market Overview:
- S&P 500: +51bps, closing at 6,448 with MOC $4.8bn to BUY.
- Nasdaq (NDX): +79bps at 23,414.
- Russell 2000 (R2K): -16bps at 2,348.
- Dow Jones: -5bps at 45,271.
- Volume: 14.8bn shares traded across all U.S. equity exchanges vs YTD daily average of 16.8bn shares.
- VIX: -448bps at 16.4.
- Crude Oil: -250bps at $63.95.
- US 10-Year Yield: -4bps at 4.22%.
- Gold: +87bps at $3,563.
- DXY: -23bps at 98.17.
- Bitcoin: +74bps at $112k.
Key Drivers:
Mega-cap tech stocks stood out today (GSTMTMEG +244bps), buoyed by optimism following a positive decision in the Google Search trial, with GOOGL hitting new all-time highs. Market breadth improved into the close, with 226 names in the S&P 500 ending in the green, compared to ~150 at 3 PM.
Economic Data:
- JOLTs data this morning showed softer metrics, with layoff and quits rates unchanged sequentially. Prior month layoff rate was revised up by 0.1%, now flat.
- Fed easing expectations remain in focus, with September rate cut probability exceeding 95% after today’s data.
- Upcoming: Friday’s NFP report is pivotal, with consensus forecasting a ~75K increase in nonfarm payrolls for August (vs. 73K in July).
Market Sentiment:
Rate stabilization today provided positive momentum, following concerns about rising global bond yields. Tomorrow’s focus shifts to ADP Employment, Jobless Claims, ISM Services, trade data, Eurozone retail sales, and speeches by Williams and Goolsbee.
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Retail Conference Insights (Day 1):
- Top-Line Trends: Companies remain constructive, noting strong performance in July and a solid start to August. Some even project 2026 to be a strong year.
- Pricing Dynamics: No significant pushback on price increases yet, though tariff-affected inventory deliveries may lead to additional 2H price hikes.
- Housing Sector: Housing stocks are performing better regardless of results. HD expressed optimism compared to last year, and TSCO highlighted consumer resilience.
Flows:
- Floor activity finished 275bps better for sale today, with supply concentrated among hedge funds (HFs).
- HFs net sold ~$700mm, with macro products showing the largest sell skew (short ratios >70%).
- Long-only flows were more balanced, with demand in Tech and Financials offset by supply in Macro Products.
Derivatives:
Intraday spot and volatility price action in U.S. indices was notable. The market opened higher, led by tech, driven by positive antitrust headlines for GOOGL.
- Volatility compressed as the rally progressed, with short-dated skew unwinding some of yesterday’s bid.
- As the market retraced part of the rally, skew steepened again, with increased interest in protection buying throughout the day.
- Gamma for tomorrow is expected to range between 40-45bps for the 1-day straddle, as attention remains on Friday’s NFP as the next major risk catalyst.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!