Retail Sales Up Next
On the back of Wednesday’s feverish US inflation report andsubsequent hawkish comments from Fed’s Waller yesterday, traders are now keenlyawaiting the release of US June retail sales later today. Given its role in calculatingoverall GDP, retail sales are a vital indicator of the health of the economyand, with recession fears dominating news flows and trader conversationrecently, this data is attracting extra attention.
Yesterday we heard Fed’s Waller saying that, following Wednesday’sCPI data, he would be in favour of a larger than .75% hike if today’s retailsales came in strong also. With the June NFP beating expectations and CPIrunning at 40-year highs, strong retail sales today looks highly likely andshould cement the chances of a larger 1% hike at the upcoming July FOMC in two-weeks’time. With this in mind, USD looks prone to further upside if today’s datacomes in hot. Alternatively, if we see any surprise downside, this will no doubtmake the picture more uncertain ahead of the FOMC, likely seeing a little USDgive-back near-term.
Technical Views
AUDUSD
If today’s data should see any USD give-back, AUDUSD is one vehicleI like for trading a correction. Solid employment data has further lifted RBAtightening expectations and given how laboured the recent move lower has been,AUDUSD looks ripe for a short squeeze higher. Bulls can look for a break of the.6847 level targeting a move through the channel highs and .6987 level towards.7191 initially.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.