SNB Holds Steady
The March SNB monetary policy meeting today saw the central bank holding rates unchanged, as expected. In the statement issued alongside the decision, Jordan noted that the bank had “tolerated” a certain level of strengthening in CHF against other currencies, given the better inflationary environment in Switzerland. February CPI came in at 1.9%, less than half what it is in the UK, US or eurozone. In light of this, the SNB noted that the bank was willing to handle a slight increase. Additionally, it seems that during the Ukraine crisis so far, the market has focused its safe haven flows more on JPY and USD than CHF.
The SNB is well known for warning against excessive strengthening of the Franc, along with citing its willingness to intervene as necessary to bring rates down. However, this meeting downplayed these factors a little with Jordan focusing on the downside risks to domestic and global growth as a result of the war in Ukraine. In light of these factors, the SNB looks nowhere near ready to tighten from its current interest rate position of -0.75%, the lowest in the world.
Technical Views
USDCHF
The recent rally in USDCHF has seen the market trading back up off the .9189 level and into the middle of the bull channel. The rally is currently being capped by the .9439 level though, while above the bull channel low, the focus is on further upside in the near term. To the downside, a break of .9189 will open the way for a test of .9095 next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.