GBPNZD Level on Watch
Price action in GBPNZD is looking interesting here to the short side. The pair had been grinding higher in a corrective structure over the recovery off the 2022 lows. However, recently, price looks to have carved out a double top formation (DT, lower high) against the 1.9651 level. With this in mind, the 1.9164 level becomes the neckline of the structure. Bears can look for a break of that level targeting a move down to 1.8857 initially and 1.8633 thereafter.
The RBNZ has recently turned more aggressive in its tightening approach as it races to tame soaring inflation. Following the latest .5% hike at the last meeting, the RBNZ highlighted plans to continue tightening. With the BOE having opted for a smaller .25% hike at the last meeting, monetary policy divergence is favouring NZD in the near-term. With the retail market currently around d75% long, there is plenty of room for a proper downside break to materialise.
Keep An Eye On
UK CPI this week is going to be the key data focus for this trade. On the back of inflation hitting record highs in May, there are upside risks into this release. The market is looking for annual headline CPI of 9.1%, up from 9% prior. If this number is confirmed, or worse still, beaten, the impact is likely to be bearish for GBP given the mounting fears for the UK economy.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.