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NFP Up Next
All eyes are on the latest set of US labour reports today. With the US Dollar heavily sold in the run up to the release, expectations are primed for further USD sales into the weekend. Indeed, on the back of dovish comments from Fed’s Powell earlier this week and with core PCE seen cooling below forecasts, it would likely take a material upside surprise to turn USD around here.
Bearish Expectations
On the back of a weaker-than-forecast ADP release on Wednesday (lowest this year), expectations are tilted towards a lower reading for the NFP today. The market is looking for jobs growth of 200k, down from 261k prior with wages to cool to 0.3% from 0.4% and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.7%.
December Not a Done Deal
Tightness in the labour market has been one of the Fed’s big concerns and so today’s data is certainly not a mute-event despite how stoked expectations are for December. Any upside surprise today could still cause the Fed some pause for thought ahead of slowing the pace of tightening, particularly if we see any upward pressure in wages.
Technical Views
EURUSD
Should USD fall on today’s data, EURUSD is a great option for trading the USD sell off. With the ECB widely expected to press ahead with a further .75% hike in December, narrowing monetary policy divergence should keep EURUSD well supported. The rally off the YTD lows has seen the pair breaking above the 1.0364 level last and, while above this level, the focus is on a continuation higher towards the 1.07885 level next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.