Goldman Sachs - Equity Positioning and Key Levels

FICC and Equities

24 February 2025

Consolidated Recap of GS Positioning Metrics

Summary:

1. CTA Corner:

- Current CTA positioning shows a long exposure of +$158bn in global equities (90th percentile), following a global purchase of +$9bn last week.

- Projections indicate CTAs are likely sellers of SPX across all scenarios in the coming week.

2. GS PB:

- The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate remained approximately flat between 2/14 and 2/20 (vs. MSCI World TR +0.03%), with positive alpha (long-side gains outpacing short-side losses) offsetting negative beta.

- The GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate increased by +0.36% during the same period, driven by beta contribution of +0.21% and alpha contribution of +0.16% (long-side gains outpacing short-side losses).

3. Buybacks:

- Approximately 90% of corporates are currently in an open window for buybacks, with this figure expected to rise to ~92% by the end of the week.

CTA Corner:

CTA Flows:

- Next 1 Week:

- Flat tape: $11bn to sell (-$4.7bn SPX to sell)

- Up tape: $4bn to sell (-$1.3bn SPX to sell)

- Down tape: $40bn to sell (-$12.6bn SPX to sell)

- Next 1 Month:

- Flat tape: $27bn to sell (-$11bn SPX to sell)

- Up tape: +$12.5bn to buy (-$142m SPX to sell)

- Down tape: $193bn to sell (-$58bn SPX to sell)

Key Pivot Levels for SPX:

- Short term: 6045

- Medium term: 5887

- Long term: 541