Institutional Insights 17/12/24
The option strikes expiring at 1.0500 on Friday are nearing 10 billion euros, with related hedging activities keeping the EUR/USD around this level. An additional 14 billion euros are set to expire between the 1.0450 and 1.0425 range, and 11 billion euros are expected to expire in the 1.0525-55 range, all due by 10 AM New York time on Friday. Currently, overnight implied volatility for EUR/USD options is at recent lows due to a lack of realised volatility. However, any increase on Wednesday could be attributed to the potential FX volatility risk premium predicted from the U.S. Federal Reserve's announcement.
For EUR/GBP, significant option strikes are expiring Friday at 0.8200, 0.8250, and in the 0.8290 to 0.8310 range. The latter is currently acting as a cap as the pound gains strength following UK wage data released on Tuesday.
Overall, shorter-dated implied volatility has generally decreased due to the lack of realised FX volatility. It might decline further if the central bank announcements this week do not excite the market, as the decay of the Christmas holiday premium becomes a concern.
Expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike have lessened, alongside reduced JPY long positions and associated volatility risk premiums over the past week. Nevertheless, a rise in the premium for very short-dated JPY call options over puts, indicated by risk reversals, suggests there is a demand for an affordable hedge that would be beneficial if there's an unexpected rate hike leading to increases in JPY and volatility.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!