Strong Start for Gold
Gold prices remain buoyant at the start of one of the last big trading weeks of the year. A dovish shift in market sentiment last week saw USD falling as traders begin pricing up the likelihood of a Q1 cut from the Fed. This week, focus will be on incoming US labour market data as well as speeches from key Fed members.
NFP Data Due
Tomorrow’s November NFP release will be the headline data to observe with the market pricing in just 50k jobs, down from 119k prior. If seen this should keep dovish Fed expectations intact, seeing Q1 rate-cut pricing creeping higher. In this scenario, gold should find enough momentum to breakout to fresh highs. This dynamic will be amplified by any furtehr data softness this week with ISM data and CPI all due.
Fed Speakers
Alongside these readings, traders will also be monitoring a slew of Fed speakers this week, kicking off with Fed’s Williams and Miran later today. Dovish comments from Fed’s Williams were the catalyst for the pre-FOMC sell-off we saw in USD. As such, risks are skewed towards further dovishness today which should be supportive for gold if we see USD start to push lower. On Wednesday, Fed’s Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook which should also be market moving, creating room for further upside in gold through the back of the week if tomorrow’s NFP data comes in soft.
Technical Views
Gold
The rally in gold has seen the market breaking out above the 4,247.34, reviving the bullish triangle break from the end of November. Price is now fast approaching a test of the 4,383.16 all-time highs. With momentum studies bullish, focus is on a breakout and continuation higher towards the 4,500-level next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.