Type:
Bullish Breakout
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.2166
Pivot: 1.20548
Support: 1.19348
2nd support: 1.1759
Preferred Case:
On the H4, with prices bouncing off the ichimoku indicator, RSI moving in an ascending trendline and price has broken out of the descending channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 1.20548 where the swing high resistance is. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken the pivot, we would expect bullish momentum to carry prices to 1st resistance at 1.2166 where the swing high resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative Scenario:
Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 1.19348 where the pullback support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Should price break 1st support, we would have a bearish bias that price will drop to 2nd support at 1.1759 in line with swing low support and 100% fibonacci projection.
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Desmond Leong runs an award-winning research firm (The Technical Analyst finalists 2018/19/20 for Best FX and Equity Research) advising banks, brokers and hedge funds. Backed by a team of CFA, CMT, CFTe accredited traders, he takes on the market daily using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.