FX Options Insights 17/01/25
It is a busy day for options expiry, with notable strike levels ranging between 1.0175 and 1.0500 in the EUR/USD pair. The total value of these options amounts to an impressive EUR 34 billion, with strikes distributed in increments ranging from EUR 1.1 billion to as much as EUR 5 billion at certain levels. A substantial portion of the options expiries are concentrated near current market levels, particularly within the 1.0270-80 and 1.0300-10 ranges. Among these, the largest deals include EUR 3.83 billion for strikes within the 1.0270-80 band and an even larger EUR 5 billion tied to the 1.0300-1.0310 level. Given the significant volume of expiries clustered near these market levels, EUR/USD is likely to see limited movement near these zones heading into the New York options cut. This phenomenon often occurs due to large option expiries exerting a "gravitational pull," where prices remain anchored or subdued near key strike levels as major hedgers adjust their positions. Once the expiries have passed, volatility may increase, providing room for clearer price movement. This highlights how significant option expiries can influence short-term forex price behaviour.
Positioning in the currency market has shifted significantly compared to July's BoJ Rate decision, when an interest rate hike led to a surge in the value of the yen. As of the latest data, the total amount of bets against the yen stands at approximately $1.6 billion. This figure represents only about one-tenth of the bearish positions that were held in July of the previous year, indicating a notable decrease in negative sentiment towards the yen. Recent trading activity suggests that speculators have begun to unwind their short positions on the yen, which could imply a shift in market sentiment. There is a strong possibility that traders are now taking long positions on the yen in anticipation of upcoming events. However, even if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decides to raise interest rates, it is expected that the overall monetary policy will remain very accommodating, including ongoing bond purchases. This could mean that any potential gains in the yen may be limited by the BOJ's commitment to maintaining a supportive economic environment.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!