FX Options Insights 14/01/25
Speculation about Donald Trump's trade policies and their potential impact has been a key driver of USD strength and FX volatility since the U.S. election. With his inauguration set for Monday, option traders are positioning to hedge against the risk of swift policy actions. One-week FX option implied volatility has increased further, as it now accounts for this uncertainty. Volatility was already heightened by this week's dense calendar of U.S. data releases, the most notable being the Consumer Price Index, which is now covered by overnight expiries.
Among major currency pairs, GBP/USD overnight implied volatility stands out as the highest, reflecting the pairing of key UK inflation data with its expiration. Broader implied volatility eased slightly on Tuesday amid speculation that trade tariffs might be rolled out more gradually than feared. However, movements remained modest, as markets continue to cautiously prepare for major event risks. This week, GBP/USD has led the implied volatility surge, hitting new two-year highs alongside EUR/USD on Monday. Still, realised volatility metrics remain much lower and could favor short-volatility strategies in some cases. For EUR/USD, the presence of numerous downside exotic option barriers from 1.0175 is expected to serve as a brake on deeper near-term declines, providing some level of support.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!