FX Options Insights 13/12/24
FX implied volatility is easing as the weekend approaches, but significant declines are expected to be limited ahead of next week's meetings of the U.S., Japanese, and British central banks. The one-week expiry implied volatility in USD/JPY carries a larger risk premium compared to its counterparts, indicating greater uncertainty and potential FX volatility risk linked to the Bank of Japan than to the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England.
Short-dated expiry implied volatility for USD/CNH is facing renewed pressure, and risk reversals have diminished the recent premium gains for downside strikes compared to upside strikes. This market behaviour aligns with expectations of short-term consolidation in USD/CNH spot prices.
Implied volatility for USD/JPY and the premiums for JPY call-over-put risk reversals have decreased this week. This trend corresponds with the pair's upward momentum and is bolstered by strong demand for strikes that favour further gains in USD/JPY, which could occur if the BoJ decides not to raise rates next week.
GBP/USD price movements indicate spot weakness and increased downside potential. Meanwhile, AUD/USD's one-month implied volatility has remained robust above 9.0 since the U.S. presidential election, driven by higher frequency realised volatility performance.
Friday saw the largest EUR/USD strike expiries of 2024, with a substantial 7.6 billion euros at 1.0500, helping to stabilise spot prices. An even larger 8.5 billion euros is set to expire at 1.0500 next Friday, along with billions more in euro strikes expiring both above and below that level.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!