FX Options Insights 13/11/24
Wednesday's U.S. CPI data is now included in overnight/next day expiry FX options, and their premium adjustments serve as a predictor of the expected FX response. Dealers utilise implied volatility as a stand-in for FX volatility, which is an unknown but crucial component for an FX option premium. Therefore, it is possible to monetise any difference between implied and realised volatility. Although this implies a higher risk of realised volatility by contrast, overnight expiry implied volatility has risen more after incorporating Wednesday's U.S. CPI than for the October release. Nevertheless, it is still quite modest and has lagged behind jobs data in recent months. A premium/break-even for a straightforward vanilla straddle of 57 USD pips from 44 USD pips in either direction, the overnight expiry EUR/USD implied volatility opened at 13.0 on Tuesday from 10.0 on Monday and has remained stable ever since. The implied overnight volatility of the GBP/USD ranged from 10.0 to 12.5, or 53 to 67 USD pips. Overnight, the USD/JPY fluctuated between 12.0 and 14.5, or 77 to 93 JPY pips, and the AUD/USD fluctuated between 13.5 and 17.0, or 37 to 46 USD pips. With EUR/USD leading G10 FX, the most recent USD advances have reduced implied volatility in broader FX options.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!