FX Options Insights 12/12/24
FX options were positioned for heightened volatility in response to policy announcements from the Swiss and European central banks on Thursday. At the same time, 1-week options adjusted their volatility premiums to account for upcoming rate decisions from the U.S., Japan, and the UK next Thursday. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut rates by 50 basis points as expected, causing a decline in the Swiss franc (CHF) which justified the premiums on overnight CHF-related options. The market had anticipated a larger impact on EUR/USD from the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement than was previously priced in or realised back in October. However, the response remained within the expected dovish 25 basis point cut, leading to a relatively subdued FX movement.
The largest EUR/USD FX option strike expiries for 2024 are set to expire at 10:00 a.m. New York time (1500 GMT) on Friday, which will likely influence short-term volatility significantly. Key expiries include 7.4 billion euros at the 1.0500 strikes, with 2.2 billion euros positioned between 1.0450 and 1.0460, another 1.8 billion euros at 1.0420-25, 5 billion euros at 1.0400, and 2.6 billion euros at 1.0375. On the upside, there are 2.6 billion euros at 1.0550.
Overall, broader FX option implied volatility is gradually declining as the risks from Thursday's events are absorbed and actual volatility falls short of expectations. Even 1-week options that encompass the forthcoming U.S., Japanese, and UK rate decisions are retreating from their earlier peaks. Of these central bank announcements, the increased implied volatility since Wednesday suggests that traders are particularly wary of potential reactions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), despite recent efforts to moderate expectations of a rate hike on December 19.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!