FX Options Insights 11/12/24
U.S. CPI data aligned with expectations, but short-dated option implied volatility declines were slight, as there remains the possibility of heightened FX realized volatility due to upcoming central bank policy announcements. The implied volatility for USD/CAD overnight expiry is at its highest for a Bank of Canada rate decision in 2024, reaching 13.5 before Wednesday's announcement, representing a premium/break-even of 80 CAD pips. For EUR/USD, the overnight expiry includes Thursday's ECB policy announcement, with related implied volatility at 19.0 or 83 USD pips premium/break-even. Aside from the recent U.S. election, this is the highest overnight expiry EUR/USD premium this year. Traders should pay attention to significant EUR/USD strike expiries at 1.0500, 1.0550, and 1.0600 by the end of the week. The implied volatility for USD/CHF overnight expiry has risen from 12.0 to 17.5, or 44 to 64 CHF pips, following Thursday's SNB policy decision. One-week option implied volatility is set to rise from Thursday as its expiry will encompass the FX volatility risk associated with policy announcements from the U.S., Japan, and the UK. USD/JPY options are adding extra volatility risk premium ahead of Friday's Tankan report, the last major data release before next week's BoJ meeting, where rate hike expectations have recently been lowered. The 1-month implied volatility for USD/JPY has dropped from last week's peak of 13.0 to 10.3 amid a stronger spot tone. EUR/USD implied volatility has rebounded after last week's declines, with the 1-month regaining 7.75 after falling from 8.8 to 7.0, ending Wednesday at 7.5. Meanwhile, AUD/USD 1-month implied volatility remains stable within a post-U.S. election range of 9.0/10.0.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!