FX Options Insights 11/11/24
FX options point to possible EUR/USD losses, although there is not much of a panic. Following Trump's victory, the risk premium for the US election was swiftly lowered. The implied volatility of EUR/USD and broader FX options fell precipitously. Since then, there has been some demand, but it has been limited and transient. Additionally, there is not a lot of outright demand for downside strikes. There is still a premium for USD calls over puts even if risk reversals have fallen from their peaks, suggesting that the market is not betting on a sharp collapse but is cautious about deeper drops. This week, there are a number of significant FX option strike expirations in the vicinity. The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can reinforce adjacent support and resistance levels while exerting a magnetic influence on FX price activity.
Monday's EUR/USD strikes at 1.0700 and 1.0780 on 1.2 billion euros are particularly noteworthy. 1.7 billion euros at 1.0600, 2.3 billion euros at 1.0725, 3.3 billion euros at 1.0740-50, and 1.1 billion euros at 1.0800 on Tuesday. 1.700 on 1 billion euros, 1.0745-50 on 1.1 billion euros, 1.0600 on 1.6 billion euros, and 1.0650-55 on 1 billion euros on Wednesday. 1.8 billion euros on Thursday at 1.0650, 1.4 billion euros at 1.0750, and 1.4 billion euros at 1.0850. Friday at 1.2 billion euros at 1.0600, 3.4 billion euros at 1.0700, and 1.0800.
On Tuesday, the larger USD/CHF strikes expire at 0.8750 on $650 million, 0.8800 on $743 million, 0.8650 on $840 million, and 0.8660 on $600 million on Thursday. On Wednesday and Thursday, EUR/CHF contracts expire at 0.9475 on 500 million euros each.
Monday at 1.3025 in 380 million pounds, Tuesday at 1.3000 in 411 million pounds, Thursday at 1.2950 in 344 million pounds, and 1.3080-85 in 776 million pounds are the expiration times of the largest GBP/USD strikes. The 720 million euro EUR/GBP exchange rate expires at 0.8305 on Wednesday.
The notable AUD/USD strikes expire on Monday at A$608 million at 0.6650 and on Tuesday at A$500 million at 0.6650. On NZ$606 million, the biggest NZD/USD strike expires on Monday at 0.5940.
There are now only a few USD/JPY strikes in the area; on Wednesday, there are 152.00 strike expiries on $600 million and 153.00 on $826 million. $1.3 billion on Thursday at 151.25-30 and $2.5 billion on Friday at 151.00.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!