FX Options Insights 10/12/24
Last week, broader implied volatility saw a notable decline, influenced by low FX realised volatility and traders reducing their positions in anticipation of the Christmas holiday slowdown. However, implied volatility has since stabilised and increased in shorter-dated expiries, indicating expectations of significant upcoming volatility-inducing events. The first event is the U.S. CPI data release on Wednesday, which is now included in overnight expiry options, leading to a rise in related implied volatility by 2.0-3.0. While these increases are not substantial, they mirror levels observed during the previous CPI data release, suggesting that dealers are cautious about the potential volatility if the results deviate from forecasts. The overnight expiry will also encompass Wednesday's Bank of Canada policy decision, which has raised USD/CAD implied volatility from 8.0 to 12.0, marking the highest BoC-related volatility risk premium since the decision on April 10. The market anticipates a 50bps move, although a 25bps cut may be more likely. Additionally, the overnight expiry will account for Thursday's European Central Bank policy decision, although further gains are expected to be limited due to a widely anticipated 25bps cut. Overnight CHF-related implied volatility will also rise from Wednesday to assess the potential volatility stemming from the Swiss National Bank's decision, as market expectations are divided between a 25bps and a 50bps change. On Thursday, the 1-week expiry implied volatility will reflect any extra FX realized volatility risk premium for currency pairs associated with the U.S. Fed policy announcement on December 18, as well as the policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!