FX Options Insights 03/10/24
Overnight implied volatility for major USD currency pairs has risen significantly since Wednesday, though still below the levels seen before the September 6 non-farm payroll data release, which was a 2024 high due to the data's importance for the upcoming U.S. policy decision on September 18. Overnight EUR/USD implied volatility has increased from 9.0 to 13.5 since Wednesday, with a premium/break-even range of 41 to 62 USD pips in either direction. It peaked at 14.5 or 67 USD pips before the September 6 NFP release. Overnight USD/JPY implied volatility has risen from 18.5 to 27.0 since Wednesday, with a premium/break-even range of 113 to 165 JPY pips in either direction. It peaked at 31.0 or 185 JPY pips before the September 6 NFP release. Overnight expiry AUD/USD implied volatility has jumped from 14.0 to 20.0, with a premium/break-even of 40 to 57 USD pips, matching last month's NFP risk premium. Traders should also monitor benchmark 1-month expiry options, which are now rolling over the U.S. election/results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!