FX Options Insights 01/10/24
In the midst of the most recent USD recovery, FX volatility measures are trading higher and are still watching for more rises. Due to Tuesday's USD gains, which heightened anxiety and raised demand, implied volatility was already higher to account for the enhanced realised volatility risk from Friday's anticipated U.S. jobs report.
In mid-September, the EUR/USD pair tested lows of 1.1069 after breaking below 1.1100, while 1-month risk reversals reached fresh 6-week highs at 0.2 for downside-over-upside strikes. With other expiry dates also seeing stronger trade, the premium contributed to the 1-month implied volatility rising to new recent highs of 7.3. In the upcoming sessions, large FX option strike expiries in the low 1.11's could still attract FX.
Similar circumstances occurred with GBP/USD, when a spot pullback to one-week lows of 1.3300 resulted in the payment of 0.2 GBP puts for 1-month risk reversals and new recent highs of 7.45 and 7.75 for 1-3-month expiry implied volatility, respectively.
The implied volatility for the USD/JPY was already high, recovering from Friday's post-LDP election decline from 12.5 to 11.5 this week in just one month. For the time being, risk reversals continue to have a large implied volatility premium for downside over upside strikes.
Given the worries expressed in recent AUD/USD trade flows over covering the risk of additional spot gains towards 0.7100, but not much higher, Tuesday's wider USD rebound may offer a chance for AUD bulls.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!