EURUSD Range Persists

EURUSD continues to hold in very choppy, tightly congested formation ahead of the upcoming headline US data today. The market has been tightly wound recently with some pointing to huge looming option expiries around the $30 billion mark which are keeping price constrained. A number of strikes are set to roll off next week which should then help open price action up a little following this recent period of stagnation.

ECB Vice Chair Says Inflation Falling

Speaking yesterday, ECB’s De Guindos noted that there are signs that eurozone inflation is finally starting to ease. The ECB vice president noted that "While underlying price pressures remain strong, most indicators have started to show some signs of softening… While still wide by historical standards, the range of measures of underlying inflation recently began to narrow." However, De Guindos went on to say that the ECB’s job is not yet done, echoing the sentiment shared at the last ECB meeting.

Lagarde Due Later

Looking ahead today, along with the headline US data, traders will also be keeping an eye on ECB chief Lagarde who speaks later today. Given the recent flow of hawkishness from Lagarde, traders are expecting more of the same. However, on the back of the vice chair’s comments, if there is any sign of softening from Lagarde, traders might pounce on this to take EUR lower near-term.

Technical Views

EURUSD

EURUSD continues to hold above the 1.0785 level for now following the downside break of the bull channel. Given the bull trend preceding the recent sideways range, a further move higher cannot be ruled out. However, if we see USD higher on today’s data, risks are skewed towards a break below the 1.0785 level which will turn focus to 1.0515 as next support.