EUR/USD Holds Steady Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Sluggish US Retail Sales

In the currency markets today, the EUR/USD pair is treading water near the 1.0750 mark. This stability comes as the US Dollar finds itself in a consolidation phase, staying within the bounds of Tuesday's trading range. The outlook for the USD is currently clouded, primarily due to underwhelming US Retail Sales figures for May, which have stoked expectations of potential Fed rate cuts come September.
The latest Retail Sales report highlighted that despite a modest uptick in May, growth was a mere 0.1%, falling short of the anticipated 0.2%. This follows a revised contraction of 0.2% in April, originally reported as flat. Contributing factors included lower gasoline prices, weak demand for building materials, and decreased sales at food service and drinking establishments.
Today's economic calendar is light, with the focus a on the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly Mortgage Applications data. Previously in decline, last week's figure surged by 15.6%, drawing considerable attention.
The US Dollar Index is showing signs of strain, even as it tries to maintain its ground. As European political instability wanes, US economic data takes center stage again.
From a technical perspective, DXY is currently trading around the 105 level, having recently experienced a fakeout below the 104.184 support level. The index remains within an ascending channel that has been in place since early February, suggesting a bullish trend. However, the recent pullback and subsequent recovery hint at potential volatility and uncertainty. The RSI indicates moderate momentum, hovering around the midline, which could imply a neutral stance until a clearer breakout or breakdown occurs:

Market sentiment, as gauged by federal funds rate futures, points to a potential double rate cut by the Fed this year, diverging from the Fed policymakers' recent projections of a single cut. This shift in expectations is bolstered by a recent cooling in inflation, indicating a resumption of the disinflation process. On Tuesday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan noted that while the easing inflationary pressures are encouraging, more consistent data will be required before rate cuts are considered.
The Pound is on the rise, pushing past the 1.2700 level. This movement follows the UK Office for National Statistics report, which revealed a decline in inflation as anticipated in May. The UK's annual headline inflation rate has hit the Bank of England’s target of 2% for the first time in over three years, down from April’s 2.3%. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also dropped to 3.5% from 3.9%.
The GBP/USD pair is showing signs of bullish momentum as it trades near 1.2880, supported by an ascending trendline. The pair is approaching the apex of a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a potential breakout. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are converging, which could indicate a bullish crossover if the price moves higher. The RSI is hovering around the 50 level, providing room for upward movement without being overbought. A sustained break above the upper trendline resistance near 1.2900 could open the door to further gains, targeting the 1.3000 psychological level:

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