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Daily Market Outlook, November 9, 2022
“Asian markets are generally softer, failing to pick up the bullish baton set up by the positive tone from European and US markets. China has removed Covid restrictions in the critical Zhengzhou region which houses the major iPhone production plant, this news was accompanied by an extension of restrictions in the country's fourth largest city Guangzhou. Inflation data released by China overnight showed weaker than expected consumer and producer prices. In the US midterm election votes continue to be counted, initial results indicate that the Republican party have seized control of the Congress, with the Senate race remaining too close to call, markets sense a period of political division is ahead, with a divide between the Presidency and the legislative branch causing political gridlock, hampering the Biden administrations ability to push through meaningful policy in the second half of Biden’s term. Markets will focus on the potential inability of the administration's aspirations to deliver further fiscal support, which would imply that the Fed will become the focus for any fiscal safety net via a pause or pivot in the current rate path. Looking to the day ahead, from a data perspective the calendar is scant with a smattering of central bank speakers in the UK, policymaker Haskel is set to speak on investment intangibles. In the US Barkin and Williams will also be making remarks, although markets are already eyeing tomorrow's US CPI release as the next meaningful directional catalyst ...”
Overnight Headlines
Republicans Favoured To Win US House In Close-Fought Midterm Elections - RTRS
Cryptos Attempt To Steady As Binance-FTX Deal Chills Market - RTRS
Crypto Retail Investors Rattled As Binance Moves To Acquire FTX - BBG
It’s Getting Harder To Switch Jobs As Us Labour Market Shows Cracks - BBG
Tropical Storm Nicole To Become Hurricane As Path Points Toward Florida - WSJ
Canada’s Economy Seen Taking 5.8% Hit From Climate Change By 2100 - BBG
Russia And US To Resume Nuclear Talks As Ukraine War Rages On - BBG
Ukraine Denies Western Pressure To Soften Stance On Talks With Russia - RTRS
Ukraine’s Zelensky Sets Conditions For ‘Genuine’ Peace Talks With Russia - WSJ
Putin's Elite Tremble As Hardliners Call For ‘Stalinist’ Steps - BBG
EU Set To Delay Payment Of €3.0B Of Aid To Ukraine Again - BBG
Dollar Wobbles While Investors Await Midterms - RTRS
Yuan Volatility Jumps Closer To Global Peers As China Eases Grip - BBG
Oil Prices Ease On US Inventory Build, China Covid Worries - RTRS
US Heating Cost Forecast Nearly Doubles As Fuel Stocks Tighten - BBG
Gold Steadies Near 1-Month Peak Ahead Of US Inflation Data - RTRS
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3760
Technicals
Primary support is 3760
Primary upside objective is 4118
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 3920
Failure below 3760 opens a test of 3630
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .9890
Technicals
Primary support is .9890
Primary upside objective is 1.0284
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.00
Failure below .9815 opens a test of .9630
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.9945 (250M), 1.0000 (302M), 1.0100 (293M)
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GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1430
Technicals
Primary support is 1.1430
Primary upside objective 1.20
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1650
Failure below 1.1310 opens a test of 1.1170
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1575 (362M)
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USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 146.50
Technicals
Primary resistance is 146.50
Primary downside objective is 143.25
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 145
Acceptance above 146.60 opens a test of 147.10
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: 143.00 (500M), 145.50 (300M), 147.00 (543M)
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AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6480
Technicals
Primary support is .6480
Primary upside objective is .6590
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6520
Failure below .6460 opens a test of .6400
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6500 (262M), 0.6675 (261M)
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BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 18700
Technicals
Intraday 18700 is primary resistance
Primary downside objective is 17724
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 18000
Acceptance above 18800 opens a test of 19150
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!