Daily Market Outlook, November 28, 2024
Munnelly’s Macro Minute...
"European Political & Economic Woes On Watch, With US Offline For Thanksgiving”
Asian stocks were lacklustre on Thursday, and the dollar was under pressure after U.S. data indicated that the progress in curbing inflation had stagnated, despite the economy showing resilience. This has created uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential actions in the coming year. With the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday expected to result in thin trading for the remainder of the week, traders were cautious about making significant moves. China's stock market lagged behind the rest of the region as traders anticipated potential additional stimulus from Beijing ahead of an important economic summit next month. Stock indices in Hong Kong and mainland China fell. Japanese semiconductor stocks gained after reports indicated that the United States might consider easing restrictions on chip equipment and AI memory semiconductor sales to China The Central Economic Work Conference in China, typically held in December, outlines the monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies for the upcoming year. The possibility of sanctions has underscored the already fragile trade relations between the United States and China. Following the recent strength of the dollar and rising concerns over trade tensions, Asian markets are set for their first consecutive monthly declines this year.
Despite the looming threat of U.S. tariffs, investors will be preoccupied with concerns regarding the economic and political stability of key European nations, including Germany's inflation figures and France's budget woes. French stocks will be the subject of attention following the country's primary stock index's descent to its lowest level since early August as a result of budget disputes that have the potential to undermine the effectiveness of the new government. French bonds also experienced a substantial decline, which resulted in the government's long-term borrowing costs reaching their greatest level since the eurozone debt crisis in 2012. Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader, has threatened to depose France's coalition government through a no-confidence motion due to her disagreements with Prime Minister Michel Barnier regarding the proposed budget, which includes tax increases and spending cuts. On the other hand, the recent collapse of the ruling coalition in Germany has paved the way for snap elections in February. The preliminary inflation data for November is being intently monitored. In October, consumer prices increased by 2.4% year over year, which is consistent with the data adjusted for comparison with other EU nations. Therefore, inflation is expected to remain elevated at 2.6%. A survey released on Wednesday suggested that Germany's economy may face additional obstacles in December, as consumer sentiment is anticipated to decrease. In response to reports of job losses, households are expected to become more pessimistic. In 2024, the German government anticipates a 0.2% economic contraction, which would confirm Germany's status as a laggard among its larger eurozone counterparts and signal the second consecutive year of decline. Because of the political and economic instability in these two main economies, investors may continue to shun the core of Europe instead favouring the periphery of Greece and Spain. The ever-present concerns regarding the lack of a unifed debt market for the single currency maintain fragility in the region.
Overnight Newswire Updates of Note
Eurozone Inflation Spike May Block December 50bp Rate Cut
BoK Surprises With Cut As Trump’s Win Boosts Trade Risks
Australia's Hot Jobs Market Keeps Rate Cuts Out Of Reach
RBNZ Silk: Rate Track Implies Slower Easing After February
RBNZ: Trump Policies Pose Medium-Term Inflation Risk
Yen Strengthens On Dollar As US Bond Yields Fall
Japan’s Former Top FX Diplomat Kanda Elected ADB Chief
China’s Yuan To Hit Record Lows Amid Rising US Tariff Threat
Under Tariff Threat, US Wholesaler Warns: 'People Will Pay'
US Preps China Chip Curbs That Stop Short Of Early Proposals
Nvidia And The AI Boom Faces A Scaling Problem
Amazon Develops Video AI Model, The Information Reports
Tech Firms To UK Reeves: Ease Capital Access In Growth Push
Airbus Struggles To Capitalise On Rival Boeing’s Difficulties
(Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.0500 (1.1BLN), 1.0525-30(411M), 1.05656 (245M), 1.0600 (283M)
GBP/USD: 1.2645 (260M), 1.2700 (237M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8300 (430M), 0.8440-50 (504M)
EUR/SEK: 11.4950 (279M)
AUD/USD: 0.6570-75 (295M). AUD/NZD: 1.0970 (220M)
USD/JPY: 152.50 (580M)
FOR AN OVERVIEW OF FX MONTH END REBALANCING MODELS CLICK HERE
CFTC Data As Of 22/11/24
Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 60 contracts to 1,079,539
Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 29,885 contracts to 258,924
Euro net short position is -42,557 contracts
Japanese yen net short position is -46,868 contracts
Swiss franc posts net short position of -37,071
British pound net long position is 40,315
Bitcoin net short position is -2,084 contracts
Speculators trim CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 6,123 contracts to 35,645
Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 91,701 contracts to 907,502
Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 113,816 contracts to 1,983,026
Speculators increase CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 23,473 contracts to 1,447,344
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5990
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 5990 opens 5800
Primary support 5795
Primary objective 6100
EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.05
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 1.05 opens 1.07
Primary resistance 1.0950
Primary objective 1.0380 - TARGET HIT NEW PATTERN EMERGING
GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2750
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 1.26 opens 1.2750
Primary resistance 1.3050
Primary objective 1.25 - TARGET HIT NEW PATTERN EMERGING
USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 154
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Below 150 opens 148
Primary support 150
Primary objective is 157.50
XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2600
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 2530 opens 2467
Primary support 2530
Primary objective is 2800
BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 92000
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 91000 opens 87500
Primary support is 85000
Primary objective is 100,000
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!