Daily Market Outlook, November 22, 2024 

Munnelly’s Macro Minute...

"Digital(Bitcoin) & Physical Gold Surging Into The Weekend”

Russia lowered its threshold for using nuclear weapons and fired a hypersonic ballistic missile at Ukraine, sending gold on its way to its biggest weekly gain in almost eight months and the euro hovering at a 13-month low. In addition to driving investors to safe havens and pushing European gas prices to a one-year high, the risk of escalation also supported German debt and put the Swiss currency on track for its first weekly increase in two months. 

Stocks in China and Hong Kong fell on Friday as investors continued to express caution owing to the potential of tariffs from the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.Chinese government advisers are recommending that Beijing should maintain an economic growth target of around 5.0% for next year, pushing for stronger fiscal stimulus to mitigate the impact of expected U.S. tariff hikes on the country's exports, according to sources. Disappointing corporate results also contributed to the losses, while shares in Taiwan and South Korea up more than 1% and the Nikkei up 0.8%, chipmakers led equities in Asia slightly higher on Friday after Nvidia reached a record high in U.S. trade on strong earnings. Bitcoin was on the verge of surpassing $100,000 for the first time, while gold bulls target a test of $2700 an ounce as the yellow metal looks set to post a 5%+ gain on the week. Assets associated with Adani Group companies remained under pressure, with dollar bonds suffering losses after U.S. prosecutors indicted chairman Gautam Adani for fraud. Core inflation in Japan stayed above the central bank's 2% target in October, according to data, which kept pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates. There is a 57% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December, according to market pricing.

Over the course of the day, monthly PMIs will be revealed globally, assisting investors in determining the state of the various economies, the direction of global rates, and the potential length of time that the dollar's recent advance may last.

Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

  • Bankers: China Stimulus Yet To Sway Long-Term Investors Interest

  • China Stocks & Bonds Falter; Investors Assess Japan Inflation Data

  • Japan’s Ishiba: Stimulus’ Overall Impact To Be About $250B

  • Japan’s Inflation Holds Above BoJ Target Amid Hike Bets

  • JGBs Edge Lower, Weighed By Pickup In Japan’s Underlying Inflation

  • Japan PMIs Extend Declines On Sluggish Demand

  • Microsoft Urges Trump To ‘Push Harder’ Against Russia, China Hacks

  • Amazon GenAI Informs Same-Day Shipping With Robots; Better Routes

  • Fed’s Goolsbee Sees Rates A ‘Fair Bit Lower’ Over Next Year

  • Trump Cabinet Pick Drops Out With Others Under Fire

  • Trump Ruminates Warsh As Treasury Secretary And Later As Fed Chair

  • Germany's Scholz To Run For 2nd Term After Potential Rival Bows Out

  • ECB: EU Reforms Don’t Need Joint Debt For Now

  • UK Consumer Confidence Recovers From Pre-Budget Dip

          (Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.0450 (464M), 1.0475 (1BLN), 1.0500 (3.2BLN), 1.0525-40 (1.5BLN)

  • 1.0550 (634M), 1.0600 (2.6BLN)

  • USD/CHF: 0.8795-0.8800 (850M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8320 (920M), 0.8425 (356M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.2500 (635M), 1.2600 (375M), 1.2625 (605M), 1.2675 (200M)

  • NZD/USD:0.5830 (247M), 0.5850 (261M), 0.5930 (330M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3960 (375M), 1.4000-05 (588M), 1.4025 (400M)

  • USD/JPY: 154.00 (1.2BLN), 155.00-05 (530M)

  • AUD/JPY: 100.85 (325M), 102.00 (450M)

CFTC Data As Of 15/11/24

  • Bitcoin net short position is -1,798 contracts

  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -32,694 contracts

  • British pound net long position is 56,050 contracts

  • Euro net short position is -7,437 contracts

  • Japanese yen net short position is -64,902 contracts

  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 86,527 contracts to 1,079,480

  • Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 94,124 contracts to 288,809

  • Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 62,488 contracts to 1,423,871

  • Speculators trim CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 2,469 contracts to 815,801

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5960

  • Daily VWAP bullish

  • Weekly VWAP bullish

  • Below 5790 opens 5700

  • Primary support 5795

  • Primary objective 6100

EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.0650

  • Daily VWAP bearish

  • Weekly VWAP bearish

  • Above 1.07 opens 1.08

  • Primary resistance 1.0950

  • Primary objective 1.0380

GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2750

  • Daily VWAP bearish

  • Weekly VWAP bearish

  • Above 1.28 opens 1.30

  • Primary resistance 1.3050

  • Primary objective 1.25

USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 154

  • Daily VWAP bullish

  • Weekly VWAP bullish

  • Below 154 opens 152

  • Primary support 148

  • Primary objective is 157.50

XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2600

  • Daily VWAP bullish

  • Weekly VWAP bearish

  • Below 2590 opens 2530

  • Primary support 2530

  • Primary objective is 2800

BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 93000

  • Daily VWAP bullish

  • Weekly VWAP bullish

  • Below 92000 opens 87500

  • Primary support is 85000

  • Primary objective is 100,000