Daily Market Outlook, August 28, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Stocks largely brushed off the initial impact of Nvidia's sales forecast falling short of lofty expectations, suggesting that the momentum of the record-breaking rally remains strong. S&P 500 futures, which reached a record high on Wednesday, saw minimal changes after briefly dipping by 0.4%. Nvidia's shares dropped 3% in after-hours trading, despite CEO Jensen Huang's assertion of strong demand. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 nearly recovered from their setbacks, trading down by 0.2%, while European equity contracts rose by 0.2%. Chinese technology stocks experienced significant gains. In other market developments, the Dollar index fell for the third day in a row. Short-term Treasuries declined following two days of increases, causing the yield on the two-year note to rise by 1 basis point to 3.62%. Oil prices decreased as traders overlooked US attempts to persuade India to halt Russian crude imports.In China, semiconductor stocks surged, with SMIC jumping by 12% after reports indicated local firms plan to boost AI chip production next year. In Japan, a Thursday auction for two-year government bonds saw weaker demand than the average over the past year, as investors are wary of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year. Meanwhile, Indian stocks fell by as much as 0.8% after the implementation of Trump's latest tariffs on the country’s exports to the US.
French bonds experienced a period of stabilization, as the yield on the 30-year bonds decreased slightly after reaching the highest level recorded since November 2011. This adjustment occurred on Wednesday, as traders reassessed and moderated their expectations regarding the potential impact of the ongoing political crisis in the country on government borrowing costs. The initial fears surrounding increased borrowing expenses due to political instability seem to have lessened, leading to a more stable outlook for these long-term bonds. The market's reaction indicates a cautious optimism among investors as they navigate the uncertainties tied to the political landscape in France.
August has been relatively calm for currency markets, with limited follow-through on larger intraday moves driven by data or events. While realized volatility has slightly exceeded July levels, it hasn’t translated into higher implied volatility, as range-bound trading has tightened its hold. This dynamic partly creates a self-reinforcing cycle, with range-bound markets discouraging directional positioning, especially for negative carry trades. This has contributed to the consolidation in EUR/USD and the gradual upward drift in USD/JPY, even as expectations for U.S. rate cuts grow. Heading into month-end, this trend persists, with rebalancing flows offering little fresh direction due to asset markets remaining stagnant over the summer (S&P 500 and Nasdaq have seen minimal change since late July). This relative stability contrasts with what has been an active period for events, including sharp downward revisions to non-farm payrolls and ongoing disruptions to the Fed’s operational structure, such as Trump’s recent dismissal of Governor Cook. The muted reaction isn’t limited to FX markets; volatility indices like the VIX and MOVE have also declined. These "cheapening" dynamics could present opportunities as we transition from the typically subdued Q3 into the historically more volatile Q4.
Overnight Headlines
Nvidia Forecast Shows Decelerating Growth After Two-Year Boom
Macron Wants EU To Target US Big Tech After New Trump Tariff Threat
Europe Car Sales Gain Most In 15 Months As Consumers Warm To EVs
Meloni Seeks Reform to Let Italians Directly Choose Premiers
Dutch Crisis Eases as Caretaker Premier Wins Confidence Vote
UK Services Firms Are Still In The Doldrums, CBI Says
Japan's Akazawa Drops Plan To Visit US This Week
Bank Of Korea Holds Rates Amid Concerns Over Housing, Lending
Japan Two-Year Bond Auction Attracts Weakest Demand Since 2009
US Crude Oil Stockpiles Fall for Second Straight Week
Nvidia CEO: Bringing Blackwell AI Chip To China ‘Is A Real Possibility’
HP’s Profit Forecast Suggests It Can Withstand Tariff Hit
Anthropic Says Attacker Used AI Tool in Widespread Hacks
Berkshire Raises Stake In Japan's Mitsubishi To 10.23%
Mexico Set To Raise Tariffs On Imports From China After US Push
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1600 (820M), 1.1625 (740M), 1.1650-60 (970M), 1.1675 (935M)
EUR/USD: 1.1720-30 (1.2B). GBP/USD: 1.3425 (560M). USD/CHF: 0.8050-60 (570M)
AUD/USD: 0.6400 (570M), 0.6475 (620M)
USD/CAD: 1.3740-50 (940M), 1.3780-90 (945M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending August 22
Speculators reduce their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures by 57,986 contracts, bringing it down to 2,508,383. They also increase their net short position in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures by 3,293 contracts, raising it to 945,516. The net short position for CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures is trimmed by 55,058 contracts, now at 1,324,539. Conversely, speculators elevate their net short position in CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures by 33,030 contracts to 242,162. The net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures decreases by 9,751 contracts, standing at 51,043.
Bitcoin's net short position is at -1,200 contracts, while the Swiss franc shows a net short position of -27,278 contracts. The British pound's net short position is -25,185 contracts, and the Euro has a net long position of 118,745 contracts. The Japanese yen has a net long position of 77,581 contracts.
Equity fund speculators have reduced their S&P 500 CME net short position by 30,327 contracts, bringing it to 365,804, while equity fund managers have cut their S&P 500 CME net long position by 23,237 contracts, now totaling 864,075.
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6440 Target 6600
Below 6420 Target 6370
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 1.1750 Target 1.15
Above 1.18 Target 1.1910
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 1.36 Target 1.30
Above 1.3650 Target 1.3850
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Below 1.49 Target 1.45
Above 1.51 Target 1.54
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 3380 Target 3415
Below 3300 Target 3260
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 110k Target 118k
Below 109k Target 105k
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!