Daily Market Outlook, August 27, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Tech stocks in Asia advanced ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, with investors eager to hear the company's insights on chip demand to determine if the global market surge that began in April would continue. The artificial intelligence sector remains a priority, with Chinese AI leader Cambricon jumping as much as 8.2% to reach a record high following impressive profits. Nikon's shares surged 21% as Ray-Ban parent company EssilorLuxottica contemplated boosting its investment. A gauge of Asian tech equities rose by as much as 0.7%. Futures for US and European stocks also increased in anticipation of Nvidia's announcement later in the day. The Dollar index rose modestly, recovering from losses incurred on Tuesday due to President Trump's efforts to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Gold prices dropped by 0.6%, and Treasuries remained stable after long-term bonds from the US, France, and the UK fell on Tuesday. Oil prices stayed unchanged as the US imposed new tariffs on India. In China, data showed that industrial profits declined at a slower pace in July, suggesting that efforts to reduce overcapacity might be easing the pressures from intense producer competition. On the trade front, Trump implemented a hefty 50% tariff on certain Indian goods, the highest in Asia, targeting India for its purchases of Russian oil, thereby disrupting years of attempts to strengthen US-India relations. Indian markets will be closed for a holiday on Wednesday. European investors have shifted their focus from the Trump-Fed conflict to France's political turmoil, triggering a selloff in stocks and bonds of the euro zone's second-largest economy. French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's failed attempt to gain support for his unpopular debt-reduction plan has deepened instability. The CAC40 index has dropped over 3% this week, with banking stocks hit hardest. Bond market reactions are crucial, as the yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds widened to 79 basis points—the largest gap since April. This echoes the ousting of former Prime Minister Michel Barnier after a no-confidence vote on the budget in late 2024. While stock futures and currencies remain stable during Asian trading hours, political and fiscal concerns are taking center stage amid a quiet economic calendar. Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday will shape near-term risk appetite and test the justification behind AI stocks' high valuations. Amid U.S.-China trade tensions, Nvidia's China business faces uncertainty over tariff talks and chip trade restrictions. The $4.4 trillion AI chipmaker is expected to report a 53% rise in Q2 revenue to $46 billion, but this growth pales compared to recent triple-digit gains. With its stock up 35% this year, options traders anticipate a $260 billion market cap swing post-results.
Overnight Headlines
Trump Weighs Quickly Announcing Nominee to Replace Cook
Senate Panel Prepares To Hold Hearing On Trump’s Fed Pick
Fed Governor Cook Will Sue Trump To Keep Her Job, Lawyer Says
Fed’s Barkin Says His Forecast Is for Modest Adjustment in Rates
Lutnick Suggests Looking At Defense Sector After Intel Deal
BoC Will Not Review 2% Inflation Target In 2026, Macklem Says
UBS Asked By Swiss Economy Ministry For Help On US Tariffs
BOE’s Mann Calls For Rates To Hold Steady Amid Sticky Prices
Australia's Consumer Prices Spike In July As Electricity Costs Surge
Australia Watchdog Says It Will Increase Private Market Scrutiny
Apple To Introduce iPhone 17 Lineup On September 10
UnitedHealth Ongoing Criminal Probe Is Broader Than Medicare
Exxon Held Secret Talks With Rosneft About Going Back to Russia
Boeing Defense Puts Talks With Striking Machinists On Hold
Kohl’s Seeks More Time to Pay Vendors During Turnaround Effort
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1475 (695M), 1.1485 (1.4B), 1.1500 (3.7B), 1.1520 (530M),
EUR/USD: 1.1550-60 (2.8B), 1.1585 (525M), 1.1600 (705M), 1.1620 (665M)
EUR/USD: 1.1630 (980M), 1.1650 (3.2B), 1.1660-65 (1.8B), 1.1675 (580M)
EUR/USD: 1.1700 (1.9B), 1.1750 (1.5B). USD/CHF: 0.8100 (965M)
USD/JPY: 145.25 (600M), 147.00 (685M), 147.25 (795M), 147.50 (1.1B)
USD/JPY: 147.90-95 (1.8B), 148.00-05 (1.9B), 149.00 (630M)
GBP/USD: 1.3300 (1.1B), 1.3350 (1.3B), 1.3450 (670M), 1.3480 (660M)
GBP/USD: 1.3500 (600M), 1.3575 (1.1B)
AUD/USD: 0.6515-20 (1.1B), 0.6525-30 (990M), 0.6600 (610M), 0.6650 (755M)
NZD/USD: 0.5900 (590M). USD/CAD: 1.3680-90 (1.5B)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending August 22
Speculators reduce their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures by 57,986 contracts, bringing it down to 2,508,383. They also increase their net short position in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures by 3,293 contracts, raising it to 945,516. The net short position for CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures is trimmed by 55,058 contracts, now at 1,324,539. Conversely, speculators elevate their net short position in CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures by 33,030 contracts to 242,162. The net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures decreases by 9,751 contracts, standing at 51,043.
Bitcoin's net short position is at -1,200 contracts, while the Swiss franc shows a net short position of -27,278 contracts. The British pound's net short position is -25,185 contracts, and the Euro has a net long position of 118,745 contracts. The Japanese yen has a net long position of 77,581 contracts.
Equity fund speculators have reduced their S&P 500 CME net short position by 30,327 contracts, bringing it to 365,804, while equity fund managers have cut their S&P 500 CME net long position by 23,237 contracts, now totaling 864,075.
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6440 Target 6600
Below 6420 Target 6370
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 1.1750 Target 1.15
Above 1.18 Target 1.1910
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 1.36 Target 1.30
Above 1.3650 Target 1.3850
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Below 1.49 Target 1.45
Above 1.51 Target 1.54
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 3380 Target 3415
Below 3300 Target 3260
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 110k Target 118k
Below 109k Target 105k
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!