Daily Market Outlook, April 30, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Powell’s swan song came with a distinctly hawkish sting. Although the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, the decision exposed the deepest policy split since 1992, as three regional presidents objected to maintaining an “easing bias” at a time of stubborn inflation and a rapidly intensifying oil shock. With Brent crude priced at $125 per barrel, the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, and reports indicating that Trump will be briefed on new military options regarding Iran today, it’s challenging for central banks to disregard these shocks. Powell's choice to stay on the Board until the economic outlook improves is significant; he could serve as a hawkish counterbalance to Governor Miran, Trump’s dovish pick, and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh if the new leadership leans too aggressively towards rate cuts.The rates market reacted swiftly. Treasury yields surged as traders adjusted their expectations, effectively eliminating the likelihood of rate cuts this year and shifting towards an almost equal chance of a Fed rate hike by April 2027—a striking turnaround from the pre-war conditions of late February. The Bank of Canada has already issued warnings about inflation risks, and decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of England now carry a heightened hawkish risk due to the energy crisis. Meanwhile, equities seem to be in a different realm altogether: Nasdaq futures rose by 0.4% following robust earnings from major companies, particularly Alphabet, which saw a 7% jump in after-hours trading, supported by Microsoft and Amazon, while only Meta faced criticism over its AI spending. Apple now has the responsibility to maintain this momentum tonight. In Asia, the AI sector is thriving, with the KOSPI poised for a remarkable 32% gain in April and Taiwan set for a 24.5% increase—marking the largest monthly gains since 1998 and 2001, respectively. Regardless of geopolitical tensions, the microeconomic landscape appears to be overshadowing broader macroeconomic concerns.

This divergence leaves Europe in a precarious position, with pan-European futures down by 0.4% as investors prepare for more stringent language from central banks and the first significant inflation reports reflecting the impact of the Iran situation. Headline inflation is likely to rise due to fuel costs, but the primary concern is that the worst effects of this pass-through are still to come. The upcoming week is packed with events: final March PMIs across various sectors; local elections in the UK that are anticipated to be unfavourable for the government, potentially weakening Starmer's position; and a Bank of England research conference featuring key speakers such as Lombardelli, Taylor, Mann, Lane, Breeden, and Bailey. In the eurozone, attention will be on Monday's ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters and Sentix, followed by PPI and the ECB wage tracker on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday. In the United States, labour market data will take centre stage next week. The sequence kicks off with JOLTS on Tuesday, followed by ADP on Wednesday, Challenger and jobless claims on Thursday, and payrolls on Friday, where consensus anticipates an addition of just 63,000 jobs following last month’s rebound, with unemployment expected to hold steady at 4.3%. The week will also cover ISM Services, trade figures, productivity metrics, consumer credit data, and Michigan sentiment. Additionally, the central bank cycle continues: despite Australia’s softer-than-expected CPI figures, rising headline and core inflation are likely to keep the RBA on a tightening trajectory, with markets estimating around a 70% chance of a rate hike on Tuesday.

Overnight Headlines

• ECB Set To Hold Rates As War Fans Inflation, Growth Fears

• EZ Q1 Growth Likely To Match Q4 Rate; April Inflation Set To Rise

• BoE Faces Multi-Faceted Trade-Off To Keep Inflation On Track

• Bank Of England In Stand-Off With FCA Over Trading Firms’ Capital

• Fed Closes Powell Era With Rates Hold, Divide Over What Comes Next

• US Pitches Coalition To Get Ships Moving Again As Hormuz Stalls

• Commanders To Brief Trump On New Iran Military Options

• Meta Reports Big Revenue Jump And Projected Spending Increase

• Amazon Posts Double-Digit Growth Anchored By Booming Web Services

• Microsoft Reports Strong Cloud Growth, Questions Of AI Returns Persist

• Google Reports 81% Jump In Profits, Beating Wall Str Expectations

• Samsung Profit Surges Over 8-Fold, AI Boom Fuels Memory Demand

• China Factory Activity Tops Expectations In April, But Growth Slows

• Lloyds: UK Firms’ Worries About Economy Rise By Most Since 2020

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.1725 (EU1.44b), 1.1400 (EU1.37b), 1.1800 (EU1.09b)

• USD/JPY: 161.00 ($2.14b), 158.00 ($1.86b), 156.00 ($1.54b)

• AUD/USD: 0.7250 (AUD1.57b), 0.6500 (AUD1.5b), 0.7200 (AUD1.37b)

• USD/BRL: 5.0000 ($3.25b), 5.1000 ($1.73b), 4.9000 ($1.02b)

• USD/CAD: 1.3637 ($540m), 1.3665 ($302m)

• GBP/USD: 1.3575 (GBP558.1m), 1.3000 (GBP500m), 1.3460 (GBP375m)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8575 (EU1b), 0.8740 (EU585.1m), 0.9000 (EU456.8m)

• USD/CNY: 6.8500 ($574.8m), 6.7500 ($375m), 6.8000 ($320m)

• USD/KRW: 1400.00 ($380m), 1460.00 ($360m), 1480.00 ($335m)

• NZD/USD: 0.5828 (NZD443.3m), 0.6100 (NZD442.7m)

CFTC Positions as of April 24, 2026: 

• Equity fund speculators cut their CME S&P 500 net short by 12,644 contracts, bringing it to 402,253.  

• Equity fund managers increased their CME S&P 500 net long by 9,443 contracts to 1,020,550.  

• Speculators reduced their CBOT U.S. 5-year Treasury futures net short by 92,995 contracts to 1,532,750.  

• Speculators also trimmed their CBOT U.S. 10-year Treasury futures net short by 9,394 contracts to 790,971.  

• Meanwhile, speculators expanded their CBOT U.S. 2-year Treasury futures net short by 39,547 contracts to 1,743,353.  

• Their CBOT U.S. UltraBond Treasury futures net short was lowered by 536 contracts to 300,287.  

• At the same time, speculators raised their CBOT U.S. Treasury bond futures net short by 9,670 contracts to 83,786.  

• Bitcoin showed a net long position of 2,071 contracts.  

• The Swiss franc recorded a net short of 33,273 contracts.  

• The British pound remained net short at 52,039 contracts.  

• The euro posted a net long position of 41,324 contracts.  

• The Japanese yen showed a net short position of 94,460 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 7050 Target 7300

• Below 6950 Target 6850

DXY

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 98 Target 99

• Below 97.80 Target 97

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.1760 Target 1.19

• Below 1.1750 Target 1.1590

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.3430 Target 1.3610

• Below 1.34 Target 1.3290

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 158.50 Target 161

• Below 157.30 Target 156.50

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 4600 Target 5000

• Below 4500 Target 4350

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 73.5k Target 80k

• Below 72.6k Target 70.5k