Fundamental Analysis

Why should the Fed prefer higher oil prices?

Heated by uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, due to attacks on tankers and the downing of American drone by Iran, oil prices have been particularly unstable recently. On...

Fed’s upcoming rate cut is likely to be preemptive rather than a response to recession

World stock markets rose on Thursday after the Fed signaled about intentions to cut rates, presumably at the next meeting, removing the “patience” wording from the statement, emphasising the growth of...

Upcoming Fed meeting: Being contrarian has good reason

Since the March Fed meeting, there have been no significant changes in the US economy to justify the current expectations of three rate cuts until February 2020 (the most likely outcome). The rebel in...

Ballooning US government debt. Should it scare away investors?

Major foreign holders of US debt - including “official” buyers such as central banks and government organisations and private investors, have increased their holdings, despite by recent acceleration...

What is the relationship between gold and interest rates? Should we expect the development of correction?

Three meetings of central banks — the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England — will take place this week, and the first remarkable reaction in the market was a brisk liquidation of gold...

Cooperation vs. Competition: OPEC favours the former

OPEC and other oil exporting nations, including Russia, are in the final stage of negotiating an agreement, which may be signed in early July, aimed at cooperation in the oil production domain,...

Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

Monday, June 17, 2019 - Inflation Report Hearings (GBP).Tuesday, June 18, 2019 - RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD), German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)(EUR), CPI (YoY) (May)(EUR), Building Permits...

Chinese data keeps disappointing suggesting more stimulus measures are ahead

Seeing downside surprises in the Chinese economic data is gradually becoming a habit. The growth rate of industrial output slowed to a 17-year low in May while decline in investment in fixed assets...

Ailing manufacturing and services sector prompt Chinese authorities to ramp up credit easing

US commercial oil inventories have been almost uninterruptedly growing from mid-March since the prices above profitability threshold permitted producers to step up production efforts. OPEC statements...