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BTC Pause Continues
Bitcoin prices continue to trade around the midpoint of the 64540 – 74325 range for now as traders await the upcoming US jobs data later today. Yesterday, Bitcoin futures rallied sharply on the day, moving back up to highs of around 69355 before hawkish comments from Fed’s Kashkari dented the move.
Hawkish Fed Comments
Breaking from the more dovish comments we heard earlier in the week from Fed’s Mester, Kashkari warned that unless inflation takes another leg lower, the Fed might not need to cut rates this year at all. At the latest meeting, Kashkari projected only two rates this year, below the consensus three.
Jobs Data Risks
Kashkari’s comments show that hawkish risks remain, putting greater focus on today’s jobs data. Simply put, if today’s data shows a weakening of the labour market, this should strengthen the view that the Fed is moving closer to cutting rates in June. However, if data remains strong yet again, near-term rate cut chances will weaken in line with Powell’s guidance that the Fed needs further evidence before beginning easing. The read through for BTC today is that bulls need to see a downside surprise to help spark a fresh rally. If we see any upside surprises, however, this could well see the BTC correction make a further move down.
Technical Views
BTC
The correction lower from 74325 has settled into a range between 60695, framed by a contracting triangle pattern. Momentum studies have faded for now. However, while the 60695-level underpinning price action, the bull trend remains intact and the focus is on an eventual break higher.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.