Bitcoin Under Pressure
Bitcoin is back in the spotlight this week amidst a spate of heavy selling which has seen almost $1 billion worth of long positions liquidated in the last 24hrs. The futures market has crashed back below the $100k mark, down around 7% on the day so far as losses mount. The driver behind the move looks to be position covering ahead of the FOMC this week. A broader dip in risk assets is feeding into negative sentiment as traders brace for the Fed on Wednesday.
Fed Expectations
The bank is widely pegged to keep rates on hold while traders will be looking for guidance on future rate projections. We’ve seen a dovish shift in pricing recently with pricing for a March cut now around the 45% mark and may above 50%. If the Fed reinforces these dovish expectations this week, this could revive risk appetite seeing a fresh move higher in BTC. However, if the Fed pushes back and takes a more hawkish tone, pricing for March and May cuts could fall, leading to a deeper move lower in BTC as risk appetite dwindles near-term.
Trump Outlook
Looking ahead, whole we might see further volatility near-term, BTC is still expected to enjoy strong gains over 2025. Support from the Trump administration is cited as the cornerstone of the bullish outlook and his move last week establish a working group advisory on crypto has been seen as the first step towards a possible strategic bitcoin reserve which would be firmly bullish for BTC if established.
Technical Views
BTC
The failure at the 107,855 level could mark a double top structure which, along with huge bearish divergence on momentum studies readings, suggests the potential for a deeper push lower in BTC. Price is now back under 100,195 and is retesting the broken bear channel highs. Below here, 91,750 is the next structural support to watch.
.png)
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.