Bitcoin Holds at Highs

Following the order book clearout we saw on Tuesday, Bitcoin prices have been grinding back up towards highs. Weakness in the US Dollar ahead of today’s key labour market updates has been helping bolster sentiment with bulls hoping for a fresh move lower in USD today to help spur Bitcoin on. Given that we are testing the previous all-time-highs, price action is expected to remain choppy near-term. Tuesday saw a record level of more than $1 billion in liquidations as leveraged longs and late speculative positions got washed out on the drop lower. However, with those frothier positions erased, the market has since stabilised and looks poised for fresh gains near-term.

US Jobs In Focus

The key event today is of course the release of February US jobs data. Momentum across markets has dried up ahead of this pivotal data as traders wait to see whether the jobs market slowed last month as expected. If a drop is seen, either at the expected level or deeper, USD is vulnerable to a sharp move lower as traders bring forward their Fed rate-cut expectations. The implication is a firm boost for risk appetite and a sharp move into higher yielding assets, such as crypto. In this scenario, BTC looks likely to breakout to fresh highs near-term. On the other hand, it would likely take a firm upside beat to upset the current macro view, leading to a restrengthening of the US Dollar and a near-term unwinding of risk assets.

Technical Views

Bitcoin

The rally in BTC has stalled for now into a test of the 69355 level. The market has come a long way in a short period of time and some consolidation and correction is to be expected here. Should we turn lower, 64540 and 59755 will be the key supports to watch. While 59755 remains, the focus is on a c continuation higher and a breakout to fresh highs.