Retail Heavily Short AUDCHF
AUDCHF is a strong candidate for long opportunities. The pair has rallied firmly off the recent lows, breaking out above key resistance levels. Meanwhile, the retail market has been heavily selling into the move, suggesting there is room for a continuation higher near-term.
RBA Hikes Rates
AUD has been firmly higher today on the back of the unexpected RBA rate hike announced overnight. The bank made the decision to lift rates to their highest level since 2012 in light of still-elevated inflation and a need to bring CPI down to target at a quicker pace. Along with the .25% increase, the RBA signalled a willingness to action further hikes if necessary.
Weaker CHF Safe-Haven Demand
CHF, meanwhile, has been under pressure today. A stronger tone to risk appetite on the back of news that JP Morgan has bought troubled lender First Republic bank has seen reduced safe haven demand for the Franc. With Aussie also deriving support from better risk flows, the near-term outlook looks skewed towards further upside for the pair while the current narrative continues.
Technical Views
AUDCHF
The rally off the YTD lows has seen the pair trading back up to test the .6029 level resistance, with the bear channel top coming in just above. With momentum studies bullish and retail traders heavily short, the focus is on a break of this area and a continuation up towards the .6085 level next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.